Two 'Must Win' Evenings for the Blues

I've got a couple of tickets to special events this week, and I cannot wait for either. On Wednesday I'm snubbing Glossop North End for once, and instead will be heading down to Eastlands for the match that could help shape the new order in English football - if Manchester City can beat Tottenham and pip them to fourth place, they could shake up the system that has been in place since the late 90s. Barely any other English club bar the 'Sky 4' has had a place in the 'Champions' League since runners up were allowed in into the cup in 1997, but a place for the Blues could cause ructions in the established order, at the expense of the Reds, Liverpool. They will claim it's due to the money they've been able to throw at it.

My other ticket could also see me witness the Blues causing ructions at the expense of the Reds - also for the first time since 1997 - as I will be at the General Election count for the High Peak Constituency on Thursday night, where Tory Andrew Bingham will be hoping to pick up the seat vacated by Tom Levitt.

Levitt only just held off Bingham in 2005, by less than a 1000 votes, and it is fully expected that the High Peak will turn blue once again, having dallied with Labour since Tony Blair's initial romp. Despite Bingham's camp having to deny accusations about the source of his funds.

This wont be my first count. I was fortunate enough to be there in 2005, when I witnessed the bizarre sight of a Labour MP cheering when a (left-leaning) colleague announced that he thought he was beaten. In the end, Bob Marshall-Andrews came through, which could have made for an awkward moment when the two met, had he heard about Mr Levitt's 'yes!' when he near-conceded.

The second moment of note came at about 2am when there was a flurry of activity. It looked as though we had a result, and the candidates were gathered. We knew it was close, but not close enough to need a recount surely...we wanted to go home. Unlucky! Mr Bingham thought 800 to be close enough to keep us all there for another couple of hours. I got home from Buxton at around 5am.

Of course, this time Tom Levitt has gone, retired, not least because it would seem that he was so utterly certain to lose. He had not won any friends by being to faithfully loyal to the party on all matters, including Iraq and latterly the mess of a congestion charge proposal in Manchester. He finished himself off with the expenses claims, given unfair stick for a genuine oversight in claiming for a rememberance day wreath, but strangely not lambasted for asking us to pay for a hairdryer. Look him up on Google images if you are not sure why.

So it seems our Labour candidate Caitlin Bisknell has been given the most poisoned of chalices - and Mr Levitt has been noticeably absent in her campaign. It would be extraordinary if she could defend this marginal seat. Her chances are not helped by the national rise of the Lib Dems skewing the polls. Marc Godwin (now defected to the Tories in an apparent fit of pique) lost to Labour by nearly 10000 last time, but could the pendulum have swung so far away from Labour that a vote for their Alistair Stevens now the most effective vote against the Tories? And even if it hasn't, can the Lib Dem supporters be persuaded by the 'Guardian' argument that a vote for Labour could at least keep out Bingham?

The Lib Dem candidate spot has been plagued with problems. Apart from Godwin turning, previous candidate Steve Sharp was charged with fraud (and subsequently convicted) and he clung on for an embarassingly long time. Without Clegg's performance on TV, Stevens would have had no chance at all, and those that wish to keep Cameron out more than remove the Government should bear this in mind.

I envisage that Mr Bingham will stand on the Pavilion Gardens stage as a victor on Thursday. He has been the Tory candidate for a good eight years now, and has used his funds effectively to make himself well known. Bisknell will be second, with stubborn Lib Dems voting for their own to keep the percentages high, but coming in third. That said, if the Tories are to have any chance of winning nationally, this is a constituency they HAVE to take...and many many more like it.

One things for sure, both nights are going to be exciting.